House prices in Germany have risen by half since 2009. No problem so far, says Deutsche Bank in a new study. But prices are still climbing. Soon, real estate in our country will be more overpriced than anywhere else in the eurozone.
- Deutsche Bank analyzes the European housing market
- In most countries, home ownership is becoming more affordable again
- Only Germany shows worrying trend
Die Immobilienpreise in Deutschland sind nicht zu hoch. Das sagt eine neue Studie der Deutschen Bank, deren Analysten den europäischen Häusermarkt analysiert haben.
To do this, the experts compared average prices with average income. They consider the historical relationship between these two parameters to be a "fair valuation" of real estate. For Germany, the value is currently approaching this average - even though prices in this country have risen by a good 50 percent since 2009. The reason: incomes have also risen.
The trend speaks against Germany
Thus, the price increases, the study says, have merely compensated for blatant undervaluations from the previous decade time. At the beginning of the financial crisis, for example, real estate prices had slid so far that they were only a good 70 percent of the historical average.
However, the trend is against us - and clearly so. This is because the strong price increase of the past eight years will continue unabated, according to Deutsche Bank. Indeed, the study identifies a gross mismatch between supply and demand.
For example, there has been little construction in Germany for years, as also shown by a study by the Pestel Institute from Hannoverfrom November 2016. At the same time, however, more and more people in Germany need housing.
This is due to the fact that
1. since 2012, around 1.8 million net more people have moved to Germany, and
2. Around 800,000 additional students are flocking to the major cities and need housing there.
Around one million apartments will be lacking in Germany by 2020, says Deutsche Bank. Their conclusion: "Overvaluations (i.e., price increases, ed.) seem inevitable given the shortage of housing and some misguided housing policy interventions."
Because neither the influx from abroad nor the influx of capital assets to Germany is likely to slow down in the coming years, the situation will get even worse, the real estate experts warn: "That's why we expect Germany to have the highest misvaluations within the eurozone by the end of the decade."
Housing prices have doubled in Belgium and Austria
The title is currently still held by our small neighbor Belgium- ahead of our somewhat larger neighbor Austria. In both countries, real estate prices have roughly doubled since the turn of the millennium. In Belgium, they are now 140 percent of the historical average compared with citizens' incomes; in Austria, they are 125 percent.
In Frankreich, Spanienund den Niederlandenhat sich das Preisniveau zwar ebenfalls erhöht. Die drei Länder liegen aber weiterhin nur knapp hinter Österreich – und sind damit bedenklich teure Regionen.
Andere Länder haben ihre zuvor groben Überbewertungen dagegen in den vergangenen Jahren abgebaut: Irland ist von einem Niveau von 160 Prozent sogar unter seinen historischen Durchschnitt gesunken, auch in Griechenlandund Italiensanken die Preise, gemessen am Einkommen, deutlich.
Das Problem der hohen Immobilienpreise sieht die Europäische Zentralbankübrigens nicht in einer Knappheit an Wohnungen. Meistens finden Wohnungssuchende noch immer ein Heim. Die gestiegenen Kaufpreise sorgen aber dafür, dass sich immer mehr Europäerverschulden müssen. In den Niederlanden sind die privaten Haushalte etwa mit 110 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsproduktes verschuldet, in Finnlandsind es 70 Prozent. In beiden Länder haben sich die privaten Schulden seit 2001 verdoppelt.
Quelle: http://www.focus.de/immobilien/kaufen/immobilien-preise-preisanstieg-unvermeidbar-deutsche-immobilien-werden-noch-viel-teurer_id_7168655.html
